Our West lasted more than 77 years. It was quietly born when Roosevelt started to give support to France and the British Empire after the start of the Second World War.
It ended with the election of Donald Trump by the angry white masses outside post-modern, hip enclaves of the major American cities: all those who lost from liberalisation of capital movement and the free world market from the 1990s onwards.
Hillary was now harvesting the long-time effects of Bill Clinton’s naïve and ideology-driven policies in this field.
Trump speaking in June 2016 (Jonathan Drake/Reuters)
Let me just start by underlining that:
1) When you have conducted a campaign as that of Trump, driven by lies and hatred, a campaign that nourished both the completely unrealistic expectations and the anger and willingness to use force among the supporters, you cannot get that evil spirit back into the bottle: No matter if you want to look open-minded and reasonable after the victory, the monster remains at loose.
2) When you have signalled a willingness for more than 15 years to make Russia happy by undermining both NATO as an alliance and the cooperation of your European allies of the EU and by formally accepting her aggressive behaviour within her former empire, that beast also remains out.
The frustrations and sick time spirit that brought Trump’s election were roughly similar to those that brought fascists, Nazis and petty dictators to power in the Interwar Period and that has infected most European countries now as recently demonstrated by Brexit. We saw and see a collective regression into the perception of a far better, simpler past, before the proud nation had been polluted by international commitments, liberal attitudes … and the U.S. by a black president.
This time the parliament building does not have to be burned as it was in Berlin. No matter what the composition of a Congress – and the next two years both Senate and House remain Republican dominated – the congressmen and -women can do little to block the President’s power. If necessary tacit and open pressure using the supporters of the Trump movement (likely to be formally organised now) can be used to discipline the Congress and encourage it to endorse the initiatives the new administration in the domestic and economic policy fields.
Trump’s part of the deeply divided 2016 USA (New York Times, 16.11.2016)
The movement that has now taken over the Republican Party is fearful of the future and it not necessarily prepared hand power back again in a fair way after having seen the effects of a dirty campaign. It adopted the fundamental intolerance of the Tea Party supporters and the movement is now reinforced in its arrogance by representing the overwhelming majority of white voters, a majority that is bound to be undermined by demography in the future. Many persons considered for Trump cabinet posts have little experience with the flexibility, patience and tact required by the constitutional checks and balances of the American political system.
There will be a break with the free international trading system and a move towards semi-autarky. When this takes place, it is most likely to trigger a slide to a new phase of world-wide depression as the Chinese have warned after the elections.
Clinton’s part of the deeply divided 2016 USA (New York Times, 16.11.2016)
The rising racial tension that we have seen during the last year is likely to be met by violent force by police … possibly supported by self-organising militias of movement members. It is likely to be ugly and will escalate because the Afro-American activists have lost patience and are becoming ever more willing to meet violence with violence.
In the foreign policy field we are told to expect a new form of nationalist isolationism where the U.S. will limit foreign military involvement to unilateral punishment operations. Here the use of force could take the classical form of what Russia is now doing in Syria, that means unlimited by international law concerns. The different forms of moral “high ground”-motivation for military action that has characterised both Democratic and Republican administrations’ policies in the era of Our West will be abandoned. A combination of an updated Monroe Doctrine and a Yalta 2.0 will be the logical frameworks of the developing Trump foreign action. Ukraine will be sold right away proving to Putin that aggression pays.
No wonder that the Balts are unhappy, at least until Trumps confirms that the deployment of U.S. Army units to Eastern Europe stands as decided. Whether China and Russia will test the borders of the new world order openly with military means now or a little later is an open question … as is American response to any such move.
The U.S. will leave any international agreements on climate management that limits its freedom of action. Members of the creative and liberal classes will migrate to Canada and Australia as Russian have been fleeing their motherland for the Baltics and Germany.
What first peaked with the Brexit vote and now culminated with Trump’s election will continue elsewhere in this cycle phase of marching lemmings.
Welcome to the New-Old World